In the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, China has been paying close attention, studying the U.S. military's operations and strategies with a critical eye. This war has shifted from a focus on destroying Iranian nuclear programs to a more complex and prolonged battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint for global oil supplies.
One former defense official questions the U.S.'s ability to build deterrence, especially in the absence of a clear policy and strategy. The U.S. military's performance in this conflict has been tactical, but without a solid foundation, it struggles at the operational level. This raises concerns about the overall effectiveness of American warfare.
Despite assurances from U.S. defense officials, the redeployment of assets to the Middle East, including an aircraft carrier strike group and Navy ships, has undoubtedly impacted U.S. readiness in the Pacific. Admiral Samuel Paparo acknowledges the operational and combat experience gained, but this comes at a cost, especially when considering China's advanced military capabilities.
China, with its growing missile stockpiles and drone capabilities, is learning from Iran's tactics. Tehran's use of cheap, one-way attack drones has proven effective, and China could potentially employ a similar strategy with its larger missile arsenal. However, China faces its own challenges, having not engaged in a war since the Vietnam invasion in 1979. Additionally, a recent military purge has resulted in the dismissal of over 100 senior officers, indicating internal struggles.
The Chinese government's detailed studies of American troops date back to Operation Desert Storm, where they observed the U.S.'s use of precision-strike weapons. Since then, China has invested in aircraft carriers and long-range missiles to counter American military dominance. A former defense official emphasizes that China understands America's projection of power, from its reliance on tankers and bases to its air and non-kinetic strikes.
China is also likely assessing the U.S.'s missile expenditure in Iran, recognizing that every missile used there is one less available for deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. This conflict provides China with a unique opportunity to study and learn from the U.S.'s way of war, potentially shaping its own military strategies and tactics.
In my opinion, this war serves as a learning curve for both sides, with China closely analyzing the U.S.'s strengths and weaknesses. It highlights the importance of strategic planning and the need for countries to adapt and innovate their military approaches based on real-world conflicts. The outcome of this war could have significant implications for the balance of power in the region and beyond.
